And unlike other news outlets, we’ve decided to make our original content free. Why is Twitter doing this. Indeed, Biden is as close to winning South Carolina or Alaska as Trump is to winning Michigan and Wisconsin, based on recent polls of those states.
It reminds me of late 2018/early 2019 with the budget crisis, Trump said something to the effect of "if the government shuts down, you can blame me." Polls are off by an average of ~3 points on Election Day. If you don't want to make a deal, you can always just let them go on and blame the other side for lack of progress. At some point I’m going to have to write a column about this too, I suppose. Click to donate by check. 1 and 2 first.. 2020 Election (1013) It’s also not hard to imagine this rhetoric further eroding his position in polls. In fact, there’s an 11 percent chance that Trump wins the Electoral College but not the popular vote in our forecast (but less than a 1 percent chance the other way around). On Tuesday, following Labor Day, election modeler Nate Silver took stock of the current state of the presidential race. Case in point: canceling talks of stimulus right before an election. While the poll didn’t show a massive swing — most voters stuck to their initial preferences — more voters did rate Biden’s performance favorably, and Biden gained ground relative to Trump based on the number of voters who said they were certain to vote for him, roughly tantamount to a 3-point swing toward Biden in head-to-head polls. He’s down by about 7 points in Michigan and Wisconsin, meanwhile. Assuming Joe Biden wns the Presidency, this is what he'll inherit: An economy on a financial ventilator with a crippling debt. It's after Labor Day! … then let us make a small request. But he essentially took credit for their failure. We’ve revealed financial scams that prey on veterans, and efforts to harm workers exploited by abusive bosses. at We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. So, for practical purposes, you can take Biden’s lead in national polls and subtract 2 or 2.5 points from it to infer his margin in tipping-point states. But we need your support to do what we do. But it’s about equally likely that a 7-point Biden lead could translate into a 12-point Biden win, in which he’d not only carry states like Georgia and Texas, but would also have a shot in South Carolina, Alaska and Montana. We’ve exposed billionaire tax evasion and uncovered White House efforts to poison our water. He could have played it, too, had he actually dome what most people think he should have done and stayed in the hospital for a bit to recover. @natesilver538, Donald Trump (1400 posts) Our model expects the race to tighten by a point or so because of improvement in the economy.
Raw Story is independent. After a couple of strong polls for Joe Biden earlier this week in Pennsylvania — the state that’s currently most likely to decide the election — Trump now trails there by 5 to 6 points. I want to spend more time on this topic in the coming days, so I won’t go on at too much length here. That’s not great, but it’s a lot better than zero. Make a one-time contribution to Raw Story Investigates, or click here to become a subscriber. Politics Sports Science Podcasts Video ABC News Sep. 30 ... Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of … Every reader contribution, whatever the amount, makes a tremendous difference. Nous voudrions effectuer une description ici mais le site que vous consultez ne nous en laisse pas la possibilité.
It is from The Babylon Bee, which has been called "the Christian version of The Onion.". So the outcome is a long way from certain, despite Biden's current polling lead. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. More posts from the fivethirtyeight community. Nonetheless, the outlook for what’s actually in store for America has rarely been more cloudy. I've seen this theory a lot, and it's the dumbest take I've heard in months. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. His attempt to pivot the campaign to a “law and order” theme fell completely flat in polls of the upper Midwest. (Throughout American history, there has always been plenty of voter suppression and voter disenfranchisement.). NEW!
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